Ace Reporter Don McNeil, from the NY Times writes cautiously about the "waning" bird flu epidemic:
Health officials are pleased and excited. "In Thailand and Vietnam, we've had the most fabulous success stories," said Dr. David Nabarro, chief pandemic flu coordinator for the United Nations.
Vietnam, which has had almost half of the human cases of A(H5N1) flu in the world, has not seen a single case in humans or a single outbreak in poultry this year. Thailand, the second-hardest-hit nation until Indonesia recently passed it, has not had a human case in nearly a year or one in poultry in six months.
Encouraging signs have also come from China, though they are harder to interpret.
These are the second positive signals that officials have seen recently in their struggle to prevent avian flu from igniting a human pandemic. Confounding expectations, birds making the spring migration north from Africa have not carried the virus into Europe.
Today: Bird Flu Case May be First Double Jump!
Ace Reporter Don McNeil, from the NY Times writes:
Reacting to the death on Monday of an Indonesian man, the World Health Organization said yesterday that the case appeared to be the first example of the avian flu jumping from human to human to human.
But the health agency quickly cautioned that this did not necessarily mean that the virus had mutated into a strain that could start a pandemic by jumping rapidly between people as ordinary flu does.
It is a "definite possibility" that the virus jumped more than once inside a family cluster, said Maria Cheng, a spokeswoman for the W.H.O. in Geneva. Although a second jump sounds alarming, "It doesn't look like the trend has changed," she said. "Each case was in very close contact with the previous one."
So, you might ask -- Why is medical/scientific journalism so atrocious in our country? Because of hacks like McNeil. He's not reporting -- he's merely a stenographer for various bureaucrats at WHO, in cozy European cities. They dictate whatever gibberish is on their agenda, and he writes it up for the NY Times.
Like the weather, McNeil's reporting will change back and forth several times, always ignoring his previous work, never making any concrete predictions, never scrutinizing what the Holy Priests at the UN or WHO tell him.
Don't worry about the stupid bird flu "pandemic" or "epidemic." It's total crap.
Hank,
No doubt there has been some excessive coverage on the bird flu and some hyperbole.
What is YOUR prediction as to whether or not it will hit home here?
The reason I think it important to pin you down, is that it's easy to pop off on the internet as you do, but there oughta be some consequence for those who do pop off, and get it spectacularly wrong.
Posted by: Orlando Incognito | May 24, 2006 at 01:24 PM
I agree. If Hank is wrong and more than 10% of the US population is wiped out, I believe he should be prosecuted for giving his opinion that it would never happen. After all, if he were here preaching caution, he might well be able to prevent H5N1 from ever mutating to a Human2Human virus!
If convicted, I would take away his "right to blog" for not less than 180 days.
Now, ask me what my legal remedies would be for people who whip up needless hysteria and profit from it.
Posted by: John | May 25, 2006 at 03:47 AM
Orlando,
Well, despite the rigorous, potent and devastating rebuttal by my friend, John -- I will make a prediction.
There about 35K deaths/year in the US due to flu.
Yet, everyone gets the flu. It usually only kills the already weak, the already infirm.
So, I predict that the 35K deaths/year WILL NOT CHANGE over the next few years, except for population changes.
In sum, I predict there will be NO increased deaths by flu.
How's that?
Hank B
Posted by: HankB | May 25, 2006 at 02:01 PM